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#coronalmassejection

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On The Uncertain Intensity Estimate Of The 1859 Carrington Storm
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doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024015 <-- shared paper
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carringt <-- background on the Carrington Event
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["The big one", if it happened today we would be right royally %^#$& (excuse my pretend language 😉 ), we are nowhere close to being hardened, etc; my other ½ is a space weather scientist, until I knew her I was not fully aware of all the risks and hazards associated with space weather]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #Magneticstorm #spaceweather #historicalevent #statisticalanalysis #spatialanalysis #geostatistics #model #modeling #geomagneticstorm #geomagnetism #solar #sun #risk #hazard #infrastructure #CME #coronalmassejection #solarflare #blackouts #humanimpacts #electricpowergrid #CarringtonEvent #numericmodel #aurora #usgs #space #geophysics #naturalhazards #extremeevents

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: The past 48 hours of high solar activity has propelled three Coronal Mass Ejections, including one launched by a strong X-class solar flare. Predicted impacts on Aug. 9/10th, 11th and 12th could spark days of minor (G1) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storms. As our weather in New England improves, sky watchers may be able to see and photograph mid-latitude auroras this weekend. Spaceweather.com has more.

#CME#Sun#Solar

Para aquellos interesados en la actividad solar y la tormenta solar que ocurrió la semana pasada, acá hay una comparación de su magnitud, con el evento de Carrington. Una medida que se suele utilizar para indicar la intensidad de estas tormentas geomagnéticas, es el Dst o Disturbance Storm Time, que es una medida de la intensidad de las corrientes de partículas cargadas que se generan entorno a la Tierra durante estas tormentas. Para que tengan una idea, este índice es 0 si no hay alteraciones, y se vuelve negativo ante la actividad solar. Suele tomar valores entre 0nT y -100nT y son contadas con los dedos de la mano, las veces que supuestamente ha superado los -150nT o -200nT. La tormenta que acaba de ocurrir superó los -400nT y el evento de Carrington de 1859 se piensa que rondó los valores de entre -1600 y -850 nT. Adjunto una breve referencia del libro Space Weather and Coronal Mass Ejections (2014) de Tim Howard y las capturas de los registros del mes de abril, donde se muestran los valores normales y lo que va del mes de mayo, donde se muestra el evento de la semana pasada. Ahora, tengo entendido que el daño en instalaciones eléctricas y lineas de alta tensión puede ser diferente, porque eso depende de la alineación del H con respecto al de la Tierra, en el sentido que dos tormentas similares pueden causar daños bien diferentes debido a este factor, en fin, guardo la guitarra. #sol #sun #solarstorm #geomagnetic #solarflare #solarcme #cme #coronalmassejection #eyecciondemasacoronal #climaespacial #spaceweather #radio #hamradio #dst

Continued thread

#ESA : The active region of #sunspots responsible for these flares is now approaching the centre of the #solar ☀️ disk and will soon point 🎯 directly towards #Earth 🌍 .
We expect further #flares from this region in the coming days. A #CME associated with any future flare 🔥 is very likely to cause #geomagnetic disturbances when it reaches our #planet. esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_wea

www.esa.intSun fires off largest flare of current solar cycle

Solar activity reached high levels when Region 3536 (N06E69,
Eai/beta-delta) produced an X5.0/3b flare (R3-Strong) at 31/2155 UTC, with complex radio burst signatures reported across discrete frequencies
by the USAF/RSTN observatories.

This flare also produced a 10 cm radio Burst of 3,100 sfu at 31/2143 UTC and a Type IV radio sweep at 31/2142 UTC.

In addition to the X-flare, newly numbered Region 3536 produced an M1.0 flare (R1-Minor) at 31/1912 UTC and an additional M2.3/1n flare
(R1-Minor) at 01/0854 UTC.
Minor growth was observed in the region in the past 24 hours.

A coronal mass ejection was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 31/2200 UTC and was associated with the X-flare (R3) event from Region 3536.

The partial-halo signature is currently being analyzed and
modeled to determine the trajectory and timing of any Earth-directed
component.

.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R1/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
over the next three days due primarily to the flare potential from
Region 3536

#astrodon #solarflare #cme #radioburst
#coronalmassejection
sflorg.com/p/space-weather.htm

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