Democrats have a choice: Do they expand the Senate map?

Republicans’ acute Senate candidate-quality problem has come back to haunt them.

In a cycle in which Democratic-held seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Montana were up for grabs,
the GOP managed to field candidates ranging from mediocre to dismal (e.g., Kari Lake in Arizona)
-- and is in deep trouble in all but one.

These Republican cranks are proving no match for wily incumbents such as
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)
and talented House members making a run for the Senate
(e.g., Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona).


At this point, Democrats are feeling comfortable (although not complacent) about all but Montana.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), running for his fourth term, managed to stay afloat in a deep-red state even in 2012,when President Barack Obama ran double digits behind Mitt Romney there.

This cycle, however, polling at the end of August showed Tester down several points, prompting several analysts to shift the race to “Lean Republican.”

And Montana looms large in this cycle.

With Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-W.Va.) leaving the Senate, Democrats will lose control if Tester loses,
even if they hold all of the other Republican-targeted states
— unless they can pick up another seat somewhere else.

Democrats have some big decisions to make.

Tester famously closes strongly and certainly could still win.
Spending heavily on TV ads and turnout might be enough.

But some analysts and party activists are looking for backup paths to the majority

Remarkably, Senate GOP incumbents in Florida, Texas and Nebraska have only tiny leads in recent polls
(e.g., two percentage points in deep-red Nebraska),
a shocking result in states that have voted strongly Republican in recent years.


Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a lackluster candidate who has not had a serious challenger, now faces independent candidate #Dan #Osborn.
She is breaking a promise to serve just two terms.

Osborn is “a union leader and Navy veteran hoping that a nontraditional background can help him overperform in the state’s rural areas and with blue-collar voters,” according to the Cook Political Report.

Moreover, “The super PAC Retire Career Politicians
— which is backed by the Democratic group Sixteen Thirty Fund
— has already spent nearly $1.4 million on TV ads, which goes a long way in an inexpensive state like Nebraska,” Cook explains.

“Their first ad in early August emphasized Osborn comes from the working class and pitches him as uniquely positioned to fight for economic relief.”

Some additional Democratic investment in Nebraska appears to be a cost-effective backup plan for Democrats. A modest expenditure wouldn’t require significant (if any) diversion of funds from Montana.


Two other races are dicier.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) has a slight lead in most polls over Rep.
Colin #Allred (D-Tex.)
— a dynamic candidate, a hawk on the border and fourth-generation Texan
— whom former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) endorsed.

A recent Morning Consult poll had Allred up by one point.

That brings us to Florida, where Republican Sen. Rick Scott faces Democrat #Debbie #Mucarsel-#Powell.

The latest Emerson poll shows her down by just one point, another by just four points.

Both are in the margin of error.

And those polls come at a time when Scott is vastly outspending her.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/22/texas-florida-montana-2024-senate-races-majority/