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#agi

5 posts5 participants1 post today

"AI as Normal Technology" — a timely and important inquiry into the social hazards of #AI. Among other points, the authors reject "fast takeoff" scenarios and describe what's dangerous about the "superintelligence" framing —TL;DR "drastic interventions premised on the difficulty of controlling superintelligent AI will, in fact, make things much worse if AI turns out to be normal technology."

Link: aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-as-normal-

AI Snake Oil · AI as Normal TechnologyBy Arvind Narayanan
#ML#AGI#policy
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(3/3)

"... the belief that AGI can be realized is harmful. If the power of technology is overestimated and human skills are underestimated, the result will in many cases be that we replace something that works well with something that is inferior.."

#RagnarFjelland, 2020

doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-049

This is what's happening, eg government thinking that replacing human judges with Trained MOLEs allows them to cut costs *and* get more "rational" judgments. It doesn't do either.

Continued thread

I get that the French railway website is notoriously difficult even for humans to use, but we're supposed to be 2 years away from super-intelligent artificial general something, aren't we? #SNCF #AGI

Replied in thread

@animalculum Unfortunately, it fits perfectly into the concept of the techbros with their #TESCREAL ideologies. They dream of #eugenics to ‘improve’ a "surviving human elite" genetically and with #AI or even #AGI. I would like to see ethical debates in science back (they still existed in my childhood).
At the same time we debate about #invasiceSpecies searching their habitats.
@academicchatter

I recommend this paper on LLMs from Murray Shanahan of Imperial College.

Talking About Large Language Models
arxiv.org/pdf/2212.03551

It was recommended to me by one of his ex-students after I made similar points, no doubt more clumsily, as we discussed LLMs, AI, etc.

It's good on the inherent limitations of the underlying mechanism and on the distinction between the underlying LLM and the larger system in which the LLM is embedded (the chatbot, or whatever). I continue to believe that if LLMs end up being part of a real A("G")I system, they play the role random idea generators and most of the intelligence come from the rest of the system.

"AI firms are interested in developing tools and marketing strategies that revolve around the allure of AGI—around a stillborn god that will transform large swaths of society into excessively profitable enterprises and incredibly efficient operations. Think of it as a desperate attempt to defend capitalism, to preserve the status quo (capitalism) while purging recent reforms that purportedly undermine it (democracy, liberalism, feminism, environmentalism, etc.). Sam Altman, OpenAI’s co-founder, has repeatedly called for “a new social contract,” though most recently has insisted the “AI revolution” will force the issue on account of “how powerful we expect [AGI] to be.” It doesn’t take much to imagine that the new social contract will be a nightmarish exterminist future where AI powers surveillance, discipline, control, and extraction, instead of “value creation” for the whole of humanity.

The subsuming of art springs out of the defense of capitalism—more and more will have to be scavenged and cannibalized to sustain the status quo and somehow, someday, realize this supposedly much more profitable horizon. The ascendance of fascism comes with the purge—the attempt to rollback institutions and victories seen as shackles on the ability of capitalism to deliver prosperity (and limiters on the inordinate power and privilege for an unimaginably pampered and cloistered elite).

Both are part and parcel to what’s going on, but one project is objectively more dangerous (and ambitious) than the other. In that way, then, all of this is a distraction."

thetechbubble.substack.com/p/d

The Tech Bubble · Does OpenAI's latest marketing stunt matter?By Edward Ongweso Jr